Condition Monitoring Systems produce a range of diagnostic outputs which in order to be useful for maintenance planning must be able to produce the useful time remaining; this is a prognostics model. Humaware has developed an alternative approach to developing prognostics models using simulation techniques that integrate all the factors that contribute to the prognostics models. Humaware refer to this as the Unified Prognostics Module which forms the core of the Prognostics Gateway™.
The Unified Prognostics Module uses simulation technology to predict the useful time remaining rather than analytic techniques; these analytical techniques are difficult to develop and even more difficult to validate.
Humaware’s Unified Prognostics Module integrates:
- Maintenance Handbook Compliance;
- Usage and Abusage Data;
- Health Data;
- Flying rates.
The simulation approach exercises the range of possible failure modes and usage criteria until the characteristics of the prognostics module has been established for each of the drivetrain component’s data. For each update of data the change in status is used to update the module with the local increment in usage data and flying rates or a re-evaluation of the model if a defect is detected by the CM System. Cumulative probability of failures for each component is then determined from the data and used with the Maintenance Demand Forecaster tool to provide the best estimate of the useful or safe life remaining.